Back to the Math
I guess I need to expand on my post from yesterday to illustrate better what my point was.
I want to put up, right from the start that I am not saying this bug is a nothing burger. I am saying that the reactions we are seeing are irresponsible and dangerous to an already unstable situation in the world. Said reactions are being fueled by fear mongering and potentially an ulterior motive yet to be resolved from present evidence. (I have suspicions, but don’t want to wander into tin-foil hat territory just yet.)
So, back to the math for a few.
- World population 7,733,000,000 apx. With an annual 1.05% growth rate.
- Daily death rate on average, world wide: 180,000 (DDR for the rest of this essay)
- Total death rate for CoVid-19 as of 4/10/2020: 97,039
Taking into account that this bug has been ‘rampaging’ since November, I will use the beginning of that month for my start date. Since inception, we are looking at 162 days. Knowing that some countries are no longer tracking this bug or reporting it to WHO, I am going to double the number to appease those that are in full ZOMG! status. Using the average daily death rate of the world for this, and the modified death rate of the bug, there is a 1198/180000 ratio daily. Listed as CoVid19/DDRof world, Rounding things off, this is 1/150. (recall, this is using the doubled rate. Actual numbers are just one in three hundred.) (This doesn’t account for the death by bug vs entire population of world that I addressed yesterday. I think that was where the breakdown in communication was.)
Wheres that 3.5% dying thing that some Media outlets were screaming about? Is it that we just haven’t hit the peak yet? Is it that we have ‘flattened the curve’ as designed? Think about it. One hundred fiftieth is a five hundred times better than three percent. No model covers what is being shown, not the flattening of the curve thing, not the projected growth models. None of them show this. WHY????
Because this is not the bug they thought it was. Whatever was released in China has or is evolving into a more benign version of itself. This happens in all virus’ because to be terminal in all stages means no more hosts! Its Darwinism at its finest.
There are some on the nets that say I am being unreasonable by saying that this thing is not as bad as proposed. That my viewpoint is ‘extreme’. I say they are being unreasonable as they aren’t looking at the bigger picture and taking into account the only point that is a non-variable. WE ALL DIE. Yeah, it sucks, it can be sad, and it is never convenient. But at some point we all visit that point. Its called LIFE!!!! You are born, you live, you die: end of story. The numbers we are seeing, DO NOT ADD UP TO JUSTIFY THE REACTIONS DISPLAYED!!!! In my opinion, the reactions are the EXTREME here. For all intents and purposes, this an openly aggressive power grab, robbing us of further liberties and freedoms. They will never relinquish what they have taken away, and only grudgingly allow us some back, until the next round of ‘whatever’ comes down the pike. And the majority of the people HAPPILY rolled over for it, and the rest either consented with minimal fuss, or some, such as myself, are trying to wake up the rest to what is really going on. As an individual, I can’t fight this with any weapons other than the one I am using. Words!
I have an advantage/handicap; depending on your outlook, by being sequestered in a quite rural area with a scattered population bearing no comparison to those metropolitan areas that are being hammered by this bug (hammered if you account for Media Bias, individual reporting underscores this as falsified information) I am also something of a hermit, there is a very small slice of society that I deal with on a regular basis. With that in mind, I have a bias against the mass insanity (as I see it) that is afflicting the nation. I also have the bias of an upbringing where when a child was diagnosed with chicken pox, all the mothers in the neighborhood would have a party to get all the kids together to get them all ‘infected’ so they could all get the shit out of the way and move on with life. This being an example of HERD IMMUNITY that we should be embracing right now, not this “hide under a rock and hope it goes away” attitude. There are those that would be far more susceptible to this bug, and they should sequester themselves for their own protection, but to have the entire society turn turtle is STUPID! The numbers just do not add up to that scenario. The effects of this will be far reaching, farther than the bug itself, and will, WILL have negative effects on those this bug would not have bothered in the least otherwise. Just the passing of the CARES act, which effectively doubled the national debt overnight with the stroke of a pen, has created long lasting effects that will continue into the next two generations not even born yet 1.
All to take care of a virus blown out of proportion by a fear mongering media system.
I am not asking for people to commit suicide by getting this bug and spreading it around. I am asking that people use the gray matter between their ears and THINK before jumping on the bandwagon of public opinion when that public opinion is the raft headed over the falls.
On a lighter note:
“OMG! How are we supposed to plan for this?” The same way you plan for anything. There’s always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet. What was the other lesson in that other movie? DON’T PANIC.
1this statement made assuming that our currency doesn’t implode in the meantime. Not an assumption I think is solid. I sincerely believe that some group is TRYING to implode the system for reasons yet seen.